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✊ Rock Paper Scissors

Rock paper scissors, best of five. It is not luck: against a real person it is pattern reading.

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Best of five

Five rounds, simultaneous secret choice. Rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper, paper beats rock. Whoever wins more rounds takes the match.

Why it is not a coin flip

Against a random number generator, rock paper scissors genuinely is a lottery and there is nothing to be done. Against a person, it is not — because people are not random, and this is well documented:

Five rounds is too short for anything sophisticated, but it is exactly long enough for the first of those to show up. If your opponent just lost with scissors, there is a good chance their next throw is rock.

The only honest counter

If you want to be genuinely unpredictable, do not try to 'think of something random' — humans are terrible at it. Use an external rule: the second hand of a clock, the first letter of the last message you received, anything that does not come from you.

Draws do not count

The same throw from both sides scores nothing and the round simply continues. So 'best of five' means best of five decided rounds, and a match where both players think alike can run considerably longer than five throws.

That has a practical effect almost nobody notices: repeating your throw after a draw is safer than it looks, because opponents almost always switch after drawing.

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